Bet on the Saints?

Super Bowl XLIV: Student-of-the-game Manning will lead Colts cover

New Orleans' defense has been a force all season. Although it certainly didn't dominate in points (21.3 PPG) or yards (357.1 YPG) it played extremely aggressive football and produced a bushel of turnovers. Look no further than the Saints' past two playoff games for evidence; the Saints forced nine fumbles (recovering four) while picking off three passes-and that came against two of the league's better quarterbacks and offenses (Arizona's Kurt Warner and Minnesota's Brett Favre).

Creating turnovers against Peyton Manning is easier said than done, however. He's given the ball up just once in two playoff games and the Colts as a team have turned it over only twice (the second being a fumble by Joseph Addai). Coaches usually resort to added pressure to force a mistake, but dealing with that kind of rush is Manning's specialty. Manning was sacked just 10 times this year, fewest in the NFL it; it was the sixth time in seven seasons he's been dropped less than 20 times, an incredibly impressive feat. No matter what defenses throw at Manning, he either finds a gap or throws the ball away-he refuses to put Indianapolis in negative situations. And New Orleans certainly would not have escaped against Minnesota without so many mistakes by the Vikings.

If you're considering taking the Colts to cover, it gets better. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has earned much of the credit for the turnaround in New Orleans, but he has a long history with Manning-and it isn't pretty. Since 2001 Williams has made stops in Buffalo, Washington and Jacksonville. During that tour he crossed paths with Manning six times, and the quarterback emerged victorious in five of them. He also shredded Williams' "D" with ease, completing 69 percent of his passes for 295 yards per game and 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions.

There's one last factor to consider before wrapping up on Indy's star quarterback. Manning is unquestionably the greatest student of the game right now among players. During the season he is consumed with football, particularly studying film which allows him to break down plays on the fly. He's already become an unparalleled master at this process, but now he's had two full weeks instead of one to study the Saints. Is there such a thing as overpreparation? Not for Peyton Manning. Come Super Sunday, he'll probably know New Orleans' "D" better than some of its own defenders.

Sometimes the simplest answer is the right one. Having complete and utter faith in the Colts because of Manning might seem like a copout, but he's a four-time NFL MVP for a reason. With a second Super Bowl ring on his hand, Manning will continue his path to becoming the greatest quarterback in NFL history. With the point spread at -4.5 at Bodog.com and 5Dimes.com, bet on a cover by the Indianapolis Colts.