Point Spread: Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Game Total Line: (51.5)
(wagering lines available at 5Dimes)
Indianapolis (6-4, 6-4 ATS) is 3-1 against the spread over its last four games, but the club has dropped two of three straight up-including a 31-28 loss to New England last weekend (the Colts covered as 4.5-point underdogs).
Injuries have finally caught up to the offense, completing throwing it out of sync. Yes, the Colts put up 28 points against the Patriots, but they turned the ball over three times-all on interceptions by Manning. In the first seven games of the year, the quarterback tossed just two picks; in three games since then, he's thrown five. Clearly, he's not on the same page as his rag-tag receiving corps, and the Colts don't have the running game to make things any easier. Manning will still will these guys to healthy point totals, but it won't be easy.
Defensively, the Colts are beginning to crumble against the run. They're 30th in the NFL at 136 yards per game, and the Patriots shredded them for 168 yards and two touchdowns. It wasn't much better against the pass, as Tom Brady dissected them, completing 19 of 25 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions.
San Diego (5-5, 5-5 ATS), meanwhile, has won three straight games after crushing Denver 35-14 on Monday-including a 3-0 run against the spread.
Rivers and the offense have been completely dominant. The Chargers are averaging over 300 passing yards per game despite, like Indy, a rash of injuries. The news was pretty brutal this week, though-there's a chance Antonio Gates could be finished for the year. It didn't matter against Denver, as Rivers threw four touchdowns, but that would be awful news down the stretch.
On the other side of the ball, San Diego continues to rank in the Top-5 in fewest total, passing and rushing yards allowed, yet is surrendering 21 points per game. The points are a product of awful special teams, which were finally cleaned up against Denver. Somehow, the Chargers made it through a game without allowing a kick to be blocked. In fact, the special teams even contributed a fourth-down fake that lead to a touchdown.
This series has been relatively close over the past few seasons, though San Diego does have a 6-4 edge over the past 10 games-not to mention a 7-3 edge against the spread. The total has gone under in four of their past five meetings. BetUS.com has set the total for Sunday's game at 52 points.
The Colts play great at home, but it's very difficult to see how they would knock off the Chargers with all of their wounded. Take the San Diego Chargers +3 at Sportsbook.com
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