Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots Betting Preview

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Betting Line: Patriots -3.5

Baltimore earned their way into the playoffs with a 21-13 victory at Oakland last Sunday. New England took it relatively easy in a 34-27 loss to Houston last week. The Patriots won the Week 4 meeting, 27-21.

The Ravens have reverted back to their old form on offense recently and are now riding the legs of RBs Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Rice had 152 yards from scrimmage in the first matchup despite only 16 touches. Look for him to go over 20 this week. McGahee scored 14 TDs (12 on the ground) this year and has developed quite a nose for the end zone. The Patriots have gotten DL Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren back from injury but they're not 100%. New England finished in the bottom third of the league in yards-per-carry allowed and Baltimore will stay with the run as long as the game is close or they have a lead. QB Joe Flacco showed good development in his second season and finished with a 21-12 TD/INT ratio. Costly drops have hurt him in games the Ravens ended up losing and his receivers have to show better focus. TE Todd Heap has re-emerged as a scoring threat in the last month and will garner special attention from New England's suspect secondary.

Patriots QB Tom Brady is dealing with finger and rib injuries right now and will have to make plays on the move as Baltimore still likes to blitz. They didn't have much success in the first meeting so look for Def. Co. Greg Mattison to unveil some different blitz packages in this game. The Ravens' secondary has been burned on occasion and they know they have to contain WR Randy Moss. That should leave a lot of single coverage elsewhere but Brady won't have his most trusted receiver, wideout Wes Welker (IR), to throw to. Look for TE Benjamin Watson and RB Kevin Faulk to get a lot of passes thrown their way. Rookie WR (and NCAA QB) Justin Edelman had 37 receptions this season (10 last week) and will assume Welker's slot role. The Patriots should also run the ball a little more and will go to that if it is working. They generally don't run the ball a lot but the loss of Welker may force them to adjust their normal game plan.

New England is 14-3 SU in the playoffs with Brady under center but the Patriots' mystique is gone. Brady will play but does have injury issues. The Patriots defense surrendered 30+ points in three of their last eight games despite playing a cupcake schedule. Baltimore can run the ball and will run the ball behind a big, physical O-line. The Ravens commit way too many penalties (30th) but look for a focused effort this week. Take the Ravens