Football Betting

Joe Squarelli
Jan/30/2009
SportsBettingStats.com

The arrival of the Super Bowl means the end of another season of football picks for Ol' Joe. This year, to put it mildly, just plain sucked for Joe. I guess that wasn't too mild actually. Aside from a decent playoff run my picks missed the mark way too often this year. Maybe next year I'll circle my picks on the schedule and then go with the opposite. I'll have a George year, where if everything I pick is wrong, the opposite must be right. I've got one more chance to make back some of that lost money on Super Sunday, so here goes . . .

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) versus Arizona Cardinals UNDER 46.5
Despite the fact that betting against the Cardinals in both the Divisional and Conference rounds lost me money I'm going against them again in the big game and taking the Steelers. The No. 1 reason is the Steelers' defense. Arizona just won't be able to handle the Steelers' onslaught. Larry Fitzgerald can get open all night long, but it won't matter if Kurt Warner has to try and find him through the Steel Curtain bearing down on him all game. Pittsburgh was second in the NFL in sacks this season, while Kurt Warner was knocked flat on his back 26 times. Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower aren't going anywhere against the Steelers' stout run defense so Warner will be forced to pass, and pass often. That will lead to at least five or six Pittsburgh sacks and plenty of hurries.

With their defense taking care of Arizona the Pittsburgh offense won't need to do much. But, as usual, in Steelers' wins they'll do just enough. If Willie Parker can find some running room (which he should versus Arizona's beatable run defense) it will open up the passing game for Ben Roethlisberger. Having Hines Ward banged up isn't good for the Steelers, but if he is hampered it will likely just lead to more plays for Heath Miller and more playing time for home run hitter Nate Washington. Either way you want to look at it the Steelers should easily get enough points to cover a 6.5-point spread.

Additional Selections
For the 46.5 point total I'll take the UNDER. If Pittsburgh holds Arizona under 20 points, which I believe they will, the Steelers would need to put 27 points on the board to go OVER the total. Not gonna happen. A more likely score is 24-13 Steelers.

For props always take heads, and if you're betting on who will score the first touchdown I'm taking Santonio Holmes. Good luck and see you next season.

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