NFL Wildcard Playoff Picks

Another NFL regular season is behind us, and lo and behold, we finished above .500 for the third year in a row at 34-31-3 ATS after splitting our four picks for Week 17. We were correct in expecting both the Patriots (+7.5) and the Bengals (+10) to pack it in, but the Pats only lost to Houston by seven points. Missed it by that much.

So it's on to the Wild Card round, where the home team has enjoyed a slight 7-5 ATS advantage over the past three years. We've got some excellent road teams lined up this year, though. And we have the Jets.

N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati (-2.5)

Thumbs up if you were able to grab the middle on this game. The Jets (9-7 SU, 8-7 ATS) opened at +4 and immediately drew some sharp action as the best defensive team in the league. And even if it was more like an exhibition game, New York squashed Cincinnati 37-0 last week to improve to 5-1 SU and ATS over the past six games - provided you were able to find a betting line in that matchup. But I'm moving back to the Bengals (10-6 SU, 7-8 ATS) at home now that the spread is under a figgie.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-4)

This is a tough pick. The Eagles (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) were No. 3 on the efficiency charts for the 2009 regular season; the Cowboys (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) were No. 5, but they beat Philadelphia twice this year SU and ATS. Dallas has covered in three straight games since safety Ken Hamlin's return to the lineup, while Philly has dropped its last two contests. Gotta go with the hot hand.

Baltimore (+3.5) at New England

The Ravens (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) are too good of a team not to pick with that glorious extra half-point. They were No. 1 in efficiency; the Patriots (10-6 SU, 7-7-2 ATS) were No. 4 with the No. 17-ranked defense, and they don't have wideout Wes Welker (123 catches). Baltimore has a superior offensive line and running attack, and the expected 25-degree weather should suit the power game just fine.

Green Bay (+1) at Arizona

Sharps and squares alike are on Green Bay (11-5 SU, 11-4-1 ATS) in this matchup, dragging the Cardinals (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) down from -2.5 at the open. The Packers are second to the Jets in defense; Arizona is No. 12 and likely to get worse if CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (knee) can't suit up. Cards observers are also skeptical about WR Anquan Boldin's chances of playing Sunday. Not good.