The last game of the NFL season is upon us. It's been a great season here at the Raine Buy & Sell (45-22-1 regular-season mark ATS), but it hasn't been such a great postseason: 2-9 ATS following the results of the Conference Round. Crazy things have been happening, mostly in games involving the New York Giants.
After weeks and weeks of bashing Big Blue, will I cave in and change my tune? At these odds, hell yes.
N.Y. Giants (+12.5) vs. New England
Just like last week's AFC Championship game between the Patriots (-14) and the San Diego Chargers, I can't see nearly enough reason to take the favorites. New York is on the same kind of roll the Chargers were enjoying, winning four of their last five and covering seven of their last eight. The Pats dropped the cash to San Diego, leaving them in a 1-7 ATS freefall.
I do suspect the Patriots can play New York better than they did in Week 17, when the Giants (-13) lost 38-35 at the Meadowlands. But I also expect more from the underdogs in this contest. Their running game is stronger with Ahmad Bradshaw, their players will be healthier after finally getting a week off, and coach Tom Coughlin probably has the coaching universe lining up to tell him how he can beat the Patriots.
The matchup on the ground has areas where New York can gain an advantage. If Eli Manning performs up to his current high standards, the Giants have already proved they can score against the Patriots secondary. The combination of Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs should be effective running behind Madison Hedgecock. And R.W. McQuarters is good enough on punt returns to give the Giants a chance at starting from better field position than the Patriots.
Advanced stats were a big part of our handicapping success this year; they just can't seem to explain how the Giants have made it this far. I'll put my trust in recent results and pick New York to give the Patriots a legitimate test at the Super Bowl. Here's to even more profits in 2008.
