Football Betting

Stephen Raine
Jan/30/2009
SportsBettingStats.com

The good news is, we have a winning record during the playoffs. The bad news here at Raine Central is that we honked both of our Conference Round games to sit at 6-4 ATS going into Super Bowl Sunday. The Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers are responsible for that. Both have eluded our grasp here at Raine Central - Arizona with its bursts of defense, Pittsburgh with its Ben Roethlisberger miracles.

We're not deterred. Let's finish the NFL season with a clean sweep of the pointspread, the total, and two of the biggest Super Bowl props on the board.

Pittsburgh vs. Arizona (+7)
You were expecting something else? It's no secret that the Cardinals were pulling in the early and plausibly sharp action at this pointspread. This has all the feel of the two back-to-back Patriots victories in 2004 and 2005, when they failed to cover against both Carolina and Philadelphia as 7-point favorites. The Cardinals have played very good football on both sides during the playoffs; I give that more weight than their full-season stats.

Total: OVER 46.5
This does fly in the face of parlay betting, where the underdog-under is the default value play. But that's just a starting point pending deeper analysis. The over is 23-14 for both teams combined. The Steelers defense has been known to score a few points of its own, and Arizona's relatively poor kicking and punting should give the Steelers a short field with which to work.

Total passing yards for Kurt Warner: OVER 265.5
We're going with a theme here. Just how much better is this Steelers pass defense compared to the ones Warner torched for 414 yards (Titans) and 365 yards (Patriots) in his last two trips to the Super Bowl? WR Larry Fitzgerald is making life easier for Warner, as well, topping 100 yards receiving in each playoff game.

How long will it take Jennifer Hudson to sing the National Anthem? OVER 2:01
That's how long it took at the DNC. The Super Bowl is going to be watched by millions more people; it's a ritual event, and rituals play huge roles in our lives. Hudson is an Oscar-winning professional; I don't see her downplaying this event with a quick and understated version.

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