Point Spread: Denver (-3)
Game Total Line: (36.5)
(wagering lines available at 5Dimes)
The Kansas City Chiefs will look to throw a monkey wrench into the Denver Broncos’ AFC West title hopes when they two teams square-off on New Year’s Day at Mile High Stadium. Kick-off is slated for 4:15 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
Kansas City’s bid to repeat as AFC West Division champs officially ended with a 16-13 overtime loss to Oakland last Sunday as a one-point home favorite. It is now 6-9 straight-up on the year and 8-7 against the spread. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 11 of its 15 games this season.
The Chiefs’ offense would have never been considered a juggernaut, but since Matt Cassel went down with a foot injury in Week 10, it has averaged just 10.7 points a game and has not scored more than 19 points in any of the six games. Kansas City’s 15th-ranked defense was the only reason this team was able to post a couple of wins during this slide.
The ‘Tim Tebow’ story has been well-documented this season, but the rubber meets the road this week after Denver dropped its second-straight game after going 7-1 SU in its previous eight. It is now 8-7 SU on the year (7-8 ATS), but still in a position to win the AFC West with a victory on Sunday. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of its 15 games this year.
There were no late-game miracles the past two weeks as the Broncos were outscored 81-37 in losses to New England and Buffalo. The most concerning part of this situation is the breakdown of a defense that was holding its opponents to just 17.3 points up until this point. Fortunately, it should be able to rebound this week against a hapless Kansas City offensive squad.
The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the AFC and an even worse 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against the division. The total has stayed ‘under’ in their last eight games against the AFC West and in 16 of their last 21 games overall.
The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the AFC. The total has gone ‘over’ in 10 of their last 14 games against the AFC West and in 10 of their last 13 home games.
Head-to-head in this series, Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 trips to Denver. The total has gone ‘over’ in 14 of the last 20 meetings overall.
Stick with Denver this time around as Tebow helps his team build-up a rare lead and the defense holds-on down the stretch to secure the win.
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