Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Betting Odds

Point Spread: New England Patriots(-3)
Game Total Line: (50.5)
(wagering lines available at 5Dimes)

New England (7-2, 5-3-1 ATS) bounced back from a brutal showing against Cleveland to whip the Steelers 39-26. The Pats covered as 4-point underdogs and improved to 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games.

A huge heap of credit belongs to Tom Brady, who went 30-43 for 350 yards and three touchdowns. He also wasn't sacked and led New England to a turnover-free evening. There's no question this offense looks different since trading Randy Moss; it can't stretch the field anymore. But Brady has led it to a respectable 25.4 points per game since then, and he certainly deserves to be in the MVP conversation.

Statistically, the defense has been carved up against the pass, ranking 30th in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 387 yards and three touchdowns last week, but he was also intercepted and sacked five times. The "D" actually held Pittsburgh to just a field goal through the first three quarters before allowing three touchdowns in the final period. There are signs of improvement, but this isn't a championship defense yet.

Indianapolis (6-3, 5-4 ATS) also rebounded from defeat, topping Cincinnati 23-17 after a loss to the Eagles. It was an ugly win, and the Colts failed to cover as 7-point favorites, snapping a two-game winning streak against the spread.

Are injuries finally catching up to the Colts offense? They've scored 47 points over the last two games-a respectable number-but one of the touchdowns against Cincy was scored on defense. Peyton Manning has thrown just one touchdown and two picks in his last two games, not to mention failing to post a passer rating higher than 70 in the same span. A better effort on the ground would help, but it's unlikely; the Colts are averaging just 90 rush yards per game, and they haven't rushed for more than 107 in three consecutive outings.

At least the defense has stepped up, holding the Bengals to just 17 points. Indy held Cincinnati to just 72 rush yards on 20 carries, and most of that came on a 42-yard run by Brian Leonard. Big plays were also in abundance, as the Colts racked up three sacks, two interceptions and the touchdown. Indianapolis has held two of its last three opponents below 20 points.

The Colts and Patriots have split their last 10 games against each other; Indy leads 5-4-1 against the spread in that span. Indianapolis has won the last two, though New England covered both times. The total is also split 5-5 in those 10 meetings. Last year it went over, though two of the past three have gone under. BetUS.com has set the total for Sunday's game at 50.5 points.

Point Spread Pick

Brady had all day to throw with the Steelers missing both starting DE's. That won't be the case against the Colts. Take the Colts +3 at Sportsbook.com