Point Spread: Ravens (-9)
Game Total Line: (35.5)
(wagering lines available at 5Dimes)
The Houston Texans take their show on the road this Sunday in an AFC showdown with the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in the Divisional Round of this year’s NFL playoffs. The game is set to kick-off at 1 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
Houston’s sputtering offense found its groove this past Saturday with a 31-10 victory over Cincinnati as a four-point home favorite in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs. It was the first time the Texans scored more than 22 points in a game since quarterback Matt Schaub was lost for the season with a foot injury in Week 10. The steady play of rookie T.J. Yates was comforting, but it was the running of Arian Foster that made this offense tick.
The win pushed the Texans’ overall record to 11-6 straight-up and 10-5-2 against the spread. They will now go on the road where they are 5-3 both SU and ATS this season. The total went ‘over’ the 38-point line against the Bengals, but stayed ‘under’ in 10 of their 16 games in the regular season.
Baltimore finished the regular season 12-4 SU (8-7-1 ATS) which was good enough to earn a first-round bye. It is a perfect 8-0 SU at home this season, but just 4-3-1 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in 10 of its 16 games this season overall, but has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last six.
While it is safe to assume this game will be a defensive battle with the Ravens ranked third in the NFL in total yards allowed and the Texans ranked second, Baltimore will still need Joe Flacco to step up to the plate and make some plays to win this game. Its running game is adequate with Ray Rice in the backfield, but you get the feeling that the Ravens will have to attack Houston’s secondary to win this game.
The Texans are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of their last eight games as underdogs on the road.
The Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites and 1-4 ATS in their last five Divisional Round playoff games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of their last five playoff games as favorites.
These two met on Oct.16 with Baltimore cruising to a 29-14 victory as a seven-point home favorite. It was the Ravens fifth win in-a-row over Houston SU and they are 4-1 ATS. The total stayed ‘under’ the just ‘under’ the 43.5-point line in that game, but it has gone ‘over’ in three of the other four meetings.
The Texans’ defense is more than capable of keeping this a one-touchdown game against Flacco and the Ravens, so take Houston to cover with the nine points in this one.
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