NFL Super Bowl Picks

The Super Bowl is on the horizon and that means the end of another football season for Ol' Joe. So how did this season go? The short and quick answer is: Not well. No matter what happens in the big game I'm going to finish the season under .500 ATS. I came pretty close at the end there to getting into the black, but a horrible day in the Divisional Round squashed those dreams. I could bet the farm on the big game to get back to profitability, but after the season I just had there's no way I'm going that route. Here's my (I hope) winning Super Bowl pick:

New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (-4.5), UNDER 57

I've bet against the Saints in every round of the postseason so far and I don't see a reason to stop now. Despite Brett Favre's colossal fail I still got paid last week by taking the Vikings +4. On Super Sunday I've got my money on the Colts to cover the 4.5-point spread.

Why? Well, first of all the Colts are 2-0 ATS in the postseason so far and they were a cool 10-6 ATS during the regular season. The Saints have only covered once in their last seven games and that trend should continue.

The Saints may have boasted the top scoring offense in the NFL this season, but I think the two teams are actually pretty even on that side of the ball. They both have elite quarterbacks in Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, and both pivots have a ton of receiving options. The run game might slightly favor the Saints with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush splitting the carries, but it's not enough to make a huge difference. Bush may have been a dynamo in the Divisional Round, but can you name another standout performance by him this season? I didn't think so.

On defense neither teams ranks among the league's elite, but the edge has to go to the Colts. Indy already shut down the Ravens and totally dominated the Jets in the second half last week. New Orleans' D was blasted by the Vikings and likely would be watching the Super Bowl from home if not for the Vikings' abundance of turnovers. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon lost a total of zero fumbles this season, so that shouldn't be a problem.

If you're a props bettor I'll take heads in the coin toss and the first TD scored will be by Garcon. Also throw a couple bucks on Peyton Manning as MVP; is there anyone else on the Colts' side even worth picking?

Good luck with your picks and see you next season