Weather Impact on NFL Betting Lines
A lot of cash is lost every weekend by betters that do not really know how to take into account a games' weather conditions when handicapping football games. You should know that when weather conditions are extreme it gives a sports bettor and edge, especially when making totals bets. When there is extreme weather conditions the Under is bet on more often and the team that has the better running game will have the advantage in that type of game.
Weather is the aspect of a game that is looked at the most closely when handicapping a football game. Sports gamblers tend to be superstitious and many would take a guess on a game that they think is right instead of researching a legit handicapping theory. Sure, you should take weather into consideration when handicapping games, but it should not be the main thing you look at. Outside factors will influence the game it all comes down to how the football players play the game.
Sports bettors that handicap games and base their conclusions on the weather and in trends in one or two games in a row are then likely to make their bets based on aspects that are not legit. It?s always interesting to see a sports bettor jump on the bandwagon of a hot team and bet against a team just because they had a sub-par game.
Unfortunately, the better that has not researched a game in the right way will generally lay their wagers on these two things. One game does not usually have any bearing on the next one and the weather will not change a team?s game plan.
It is always a great game day when games are played in domes. Don't be caught in the trap of betting the Over in domed games because you think the scores will be higher. The reason? Well, basically games that are played outdoors in good weather do not score, on average, less then games that are in domes. Obviously, bad weather games outdoor will tend to be lower scoring ones, but the line-maker knows this all too well.
Much like injuries, the weather and conditions of the field tend to be looked at very closely by both experienced sports bettors and beginners, as bad weather usually does not give one team or the other an edge in a game. The weather will affect the game, but the line-maker will take that into account when they make the line.
Here are a few facts about games played in poor weather conditions:
The surface will be slower if a game is played in wet conditions. When the surface footing gets sloppy the game becomes a battle of attrition and the game will be won or lost in the trenches, which is on the line.
When it is a wet day the power game that takes place in between the tackles is more important because it is very hard to sweep block. It is also hard for the QB throw a tight spiral in wet conditions, as it is harder to get a good grip on the ball.
If the weather is cold the kicking game will be affected. With every kick the kicker will lose distance on their kicks.
Here are a few misconceptions about playing in poor weather conditions:
Snow does not usually affect a team's game plan.
If the game is played in wet conditions it will create fewer passing touchdowns.
Unless it is the case where you get some information that others do not have or you can predict the future then those that make the line have the same info that you do and they have already looked at it when they come up with a line. When you look at any outside effect on a football game you have to find out if that effect has already been seen by line-makers.
Injuries, especially to key players, have more of an effect on a game and will also have a bigger effect on the line. Injuries rather then adverse weather is the one thing that can make a point spread fluctuate. Bookies would rather take a game off the board instead of try to pinpoint if a player will play or sit in the game.
Simply betting because a team has lost their starting QB or RB without having the knowledge of the aspects of the game with the assumption that the weather will change a team?s game plan will give you no edge in a game. Line-makers always take into account how the public will bet.
One weather condition that is overly looked at by the public is snow. There are not many games each season that snow will affect a synthetic field, as there are advanced heating systems on fields such as this to make the field playable. It is a fact that snow only has an effect on less then 1% of both NFL and NCAA football games.
One weather condition that many sports bettors tend to overlook is the wind. Wind will change a game more then snow or rain will. Teams that line and die with the passing game, such as NFL teams that run the West Coast offense, will not be able to execute their game plan as well when there are gusty winds.
It can be difficult to find out, but if you can figure out the direction of the wind in a game, ie knowing the cross wind, rather from one end zone to the other can give you an edge.
All football teams will be affected by the wind, regardless of how they play and can offer a sports bettor an edge. In windy conditions the game will tend be one that is low scoring and while line-makers will take this into account they will not change the totals too much. The reason for this is that the line-maker will be afraid to lose big to good sports bettors that are always looking or a good middle proposition.
The supposed rule of thumb is that bad weather would make you bet on the Under. However, conditions that are wet or snowy will actually help the offense rather then the defense more then muddy conditions. It can be hard to make changes in directions in muddy conditions, which means the offensive team does not have the edge.
A WR is aware of their routes and the defense has to react and on wet surfaces this gives the offensive team the advantage. The same thing goes for the offensive lines, as they have to be aware of the snap count while the defensive line has to react when the ball is snapped. The D-line does not have the same leverage in rushing places because of the poor surface.
Basically, just looking at the weather instead of all the other factors when handicapping a football game is a bad idea. Trying to find a value bet by trying to figure out the weather is something that should be looked at, but do not put too much value in it. Hey, we have all seen weather forecasts for rain or wind and it turns out to be gorgeous. If you laid a bet on a weather forecast you may be disappointed to see a beautiful game day. A good sports bettor that handicaps games must compare how the weather will account what the point spread will be. The only time you can get an edge is when there is a discrepancy in the weather assessment by the lines-maker.