Point Spread: Houston (-3)
Game Total Line: (38.5)
(wagering lines available at 5Dimes)
The Cincinnati Bengals kick-off this season’s NFL Super Bowl Derby with a trip to Reliant Stadium for a Saturday afternoon clash with the AFC South champion Houston Texans. The game is slated to get underway at 4:30 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on NBC.
Despite losing to Baltimore 24-16 as a 2.5-point home underdog, Cincinnati still earned the sixth and final seed in the AFC by virtue of a 9-7 record straight-up and a head-to-head win over 9-7 Tennessee. The Bengals went 8-6-2 against the spread and the total went ‘over’ in 11 of their 16 games this season.
If Cincinnati is going to have any chance to win this game it will behind a defense that finished the regular season ranked seventh in total yards allowed and ninth in points allowed; giving-up an average of 20.2 a game. Offensively, the Bengals have struggled over the second half of the season with an average of just 18.6 points a game. Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton appeared to run out of steam down the stretch with only eight touchdowns and six interceptions over these eight games.
Houston raced out to a 7-3 SU record before losing quarterback Matt Schaub for this season with a foot injury. It went 3-3 from that point on including losses in its last three games. It locked-up the No.4 seed by winning the division with a 10-6 SU record overall. The Texans were 9-5-2 ATS and the total stayed ‘under’ in 10 of their 16 games this year.
It will up to rookie quarterback T.Y. Yates to help Houston advance past the first round. In five starts this season, he has completed 61.2 percent of his passes for 949 yards and three touchdowns. He has also thrown three interceptions and been sacked 15 times. His primary role in this game will be to hand the ball off to Arian Foster and hope that the offensive line can control the line of scrimmage. The good news is that wide receiver Andre Johnson should be back to full strength for this game after missing a good chunk of the season with a lingering hamstring injury.
The Bengals are 1-5-2 ATS in their last eight games overall, but 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road. The total has gone ‘over’ in 10 of their last 12 games against the AFC.
The Texans are 4-1-2 in their last seven games against the AFC and 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine games at home. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of their last eight games at home.
Head-to-head, Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings including a 20-19 loss in Week 14 as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Expect this game to be another slow grind that should stay ‘under’ the total despite the line being set so low. The Texans get the win, but the Bengals cover with the three points.
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