NFL Betting Tips

Betting Big Road Favorites

One of the most profitable wagers for NFL bettors over the last 10 years has been betting against big road favorites who have been favored by more than 7 points. Searching out profitable underdog bets throughout the NFL season is the difference between a bettor who barely bets on the right side 50% of the time, and a much richer bettor who's bang-on 60-plus % of the time.

Since 1997 there have been 107 games on the NFL schedule in which the oddsmakers have set the road team as a favorite by 7 or more points. The overall ATS record of the road favorites is a horrific 38-63-3. That's a bankroll-draining winning percentage of only 37%. If you had been going against the favorite in all of these game for the past 10 years, you would have been paid off nearly 63% of the time.

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Last season was one of the best ever for any bettors that knew about the profitability in betting against big road dogs. There were 10 games last year in which the road team was favored by more than 7 points. In those 10 games the road favorite only covered the spread twice. In four of those games the big road favorite actually lost straight up, which would have paid quite handsomely to anyone betting the money line.

Here's a rundown of the 10 games that fit the formula from last season:
Indianapolis (-8) at NY Jets - Final score: Colts 31 - Jets 28
Dallas (-9.5) at Tennessee - Final score: Cowboys 45 - Titans 14
San Diego (-10) at San Francisco - Final score: Chargers 48 - 49ers 19
Chicago (-13) at Arizona - Final score: Bears 24 - Cardinals 23
Jacksonville (-8) at Houston - Final score: Texans 27 - Jaguars 7
Pittsburgh (-9) at Oakland - Final score: Raiders 20 - Steelers 13
Baltimore (-7.5) at Tennessee - Final score: Ravens 27 - Titans 26
Denver (-8) at Oakland - Final score: Broncos 17 - Raiders 13
Indianapolis (-7.5) at Tennessee - Final score: Titans 20 - Colts 17
Indianapolis (-9.5) at Houston - Final score: Texans 27 - Colts 24