Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Betting Line: Colts -6.5

Baltimore raced out to a 24-0 1st quarter lead and never looked back in a 33-14 thrashing of New England last Sunday. Indianapolis had the week off after not competing in their last two games and ruining a 14-0 start. The Colts won the Week 11 matchup 17-15 as they picked off a pass in the last two minutes to thwart the Ravens when they were in scoring position.

Baltimore rushed for 229 yards and four TDs last week, spearheaded by RB Ray Rice's 159 yards on 22 carries. He also scored twice. The Ravens re-dedicated themselves to running the ball late in the season and the results were impressive. They now face the undersized front seven of the Colts who ranked 24th vs. the run this year. QB Joe Flacco cost his team victory in the earlier matchup with an ill-advised throw when Baltimore was already in FG range. The Colts held up well in pass coverage despite starting two rookie corners for much of the season. The Ravens passing game isn't electric but Flacco has the arm strength to make any throw and WR Derrick Mason and TE Todd Heap are reliable targets. Rice is also a threat out of the backfield. The Colts ranked 31st in stopping 3rd-down conversions this season, a bad omen against a physical, ball control club like Baltimore.

Colts' QB Peyton Manning won his 4th MVP Award earlier this week but has never put up great numbers in the playoffs. In their Super Bowl run in 2006-7, the team won despite his performance in the first two games. The first-team offense hasn't played meaningful minutes in almost a month and now must battle the NFL's 3rd-ranked defense (No.1 vs. run), a defense that has been in playoff mode for the last several weeks. Manning has done a good job in the past of exploiting the Ravens secondary but struggled in the earlier meeting. He will need to pass a lot in this contest as RBs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown figure to struggle finding running lanes. Manning does enjoy several good matchups with his receivers and wideouts Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie all figure in the mix. TE Dallas Clark is very reliable and productive and the Ravens can't cover him with a LB. Baltimore needs a big game from FS Ed Reed to keep Manning from marching up and down the field.

Despite their 14-2 record, the Colts needed several big 4th quarter comebacks to win close games. The Ravens settled for five FGs in the first matchup and need to score TDs when they get close. Indianapolis has a poor playoff record when they coast at season's end (6 losses in their first playoff game in their last 10 seasons of making the playoffs) and didn't enjoy an easy path when they won in 2007. Baltimore put good pressure on QB Tom Brady last week but the Colts rarely surrender sacks. Look for the ground game and the defense of the Ravens to get them a road cover this week.
Take the Ravens