Point Spread: Baltimore (-1.5)
Game Total Line: (38)
(wagering lines available at 5Dimes)
The Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals clash on New Year’s Day at Paul Brown Stadium in an AFC North showdown that has major playoff implications for both teams. The kick-off is set for 1 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast on CBS.
Baltimore has already clinched a playoff spot, but needs a win on Sunday to lock-up the division as well as a crucial first-round bye. It is coming off a 20-14 victory over Cleveland as a 12.5-point home favorite that raised its record to 11-4 straight-up, but dropped it to 7-7-1 against the spread. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of its 15 games this year. The Ravens continue to march along with seven SU wins in their last games, but they have not been able to dominate their opponents with a 3-5-1 record ATS. The offense, under the guidance of Joe Flacco, is ranked 15th in the league in total yards per game and 13th in scoring. Baltimore’s defense remains solid across the board and is currently ranked third in points allowed; giving-up an average of 16.7 points a game.
Cincinnati continues to plod along as well and with back-to-back victories over Arizona and St. Louis the past two weeks to take control of the final wildcard spot in the playoffs at 9-6 SU. It is a healthy 8-5-2 ATS and the total has gone ‘over’ in 10 of its 15 games.
The Bengals are by no means one of the flashiest teams in the NFL, but behind rookie quarterback Andy Dalton are averaging 318.8 total yards of offense and 21.9 points a game. The real turnaround on this team has been on the other side of the ball with a defense that is ranked sixth in total yards allowed and ninth in points allowed; holding its opponents to 19.9 points a game. The Bengals have been especially good against the run by holding teams to less than 100 yards a game.
Baltimore is 0-3 ATS in its last three games and 3-4 ATS in seven road games this season. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the seven games on the road.
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games and 3-4 ATS in seven games at home. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the seven home games this year.
Head-to-head, the Ravens are 2-3 SU in the last five games, but won the first meeting this season 31-24 as 7.5-point home favorites. They are 0-5 ATS in the last five games and the total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the five games.
The ‘under’ may actually be the best play this time around, but stick with Baltimore to finally win the AFC North with a win on the road that covers the 1.5 points.
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