Point Spread: Giants (-3)
Game Total Line: (48.5)
(wagering lines available at 5Dimes)
The Atlanta Falcons landed the fifth seed in the NFC playoffs, earning the opportunity to take-on the fourth-seed New York Giants at MetLife Stadium in this Sunday afternoon’s Wildcard Round. The kick-off for this clash is slated for 1 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
Atlanta could not catch New Orleans in the South Division race, but it won five of seven games down the stretch including a 45-24 romp over Tampa Bay this past Sunday as a 10-point home favorite to finish 10-6 straight-up on the year and 7-8-1 against the spread. The total went over the 45.5-point line against the Buccaneers, but stayed ‘under’ in nine of its previous 15 games.
Offensively, the Falcons finished ranked 10th in the NFL total yards per game and seventh in scoring with an average of 25.1 points a game. The defense was ranked 12th in total yards allowed and 18th in points allowed; giving-up an average of 21.9 points a game. Atlanta was ranked 20th against the pass which could be a concern against a Giants’ offense that only knows how to move the ball though the air.
New York jumped-out to a 6-2 start this season, but needed two wins in its last two games to lock-up the division title. It finished the season 9-7 SU and was 8-7-1 ATS. The total also went 8-7-1 in its 16 games this season.
The Giants outscored the Jets and the Cowboys 60-28 in their last two games, after losing five of their previous six games by an average margin of 9.7 points. This could bode well not just in Sunday’s contest, but in the postseason in general, as they have been known as a very streaky team, both good and bad, over the past few seasons. One of the main reasons for this has been the up-and-down play of Eli Manning. When he is on, he can be just as good as any of the top rated quarterbacks in the league, but when he is off he can be as bad as it gets.
The Falcons are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of four playoff games, but has stayed ‘under’ in seven of nine games following a SU win.
The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of their last five playoff games at home.
The road team is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series and the total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the last seven games. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to New Jersey to play the Giants including a 34-31 loss in 2009 as a seven-point underdog.
This time around, look for the Falcons to get the outright win they do just enough to squeeze by New York on the road.
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