NFL Handicapping

Inside the NFL Spread - Conference Playoff Report

Sunday January 23, 2006

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos -3 (42.5)

The Broncos continued their home dominance with a home win over the defending Superbowl champion Patriots. Pittsburgh meanwhile walked into Indianapolis and beat a team that for most of the season was considered the class of the NFL. While both teams were victorious last week both teams had moments where they were in trouble on the field and on the scoreboard.

Oddsmakers opened this line a little bit higher than its current 3-point spread, which is available at most betting shops. Early money has steadily come in on the underdog as the early public players like what they see from this Steelers' group.

In evaluating this line, players should determine what home field advantage is worth for the Broncos and whether or not the Steelers can win their 7th straight game including their 3rd straight game on the road. Previous to this year, Bill Cowher had not won a single playoff road game, yet they have already notched 2 road wins in this year's playoffs.

It is difficult at this time to determine where this line will settle. Although early money has pushed this line down, this game will see an inordinate amount of action because it is a championship game and thus a lot of late money will come just before game time. One thing is for certain, it will be possible for the line to close higher than 3 but it would be very difficult for the books to move this one under 3 points no matter how much action they get on the underdog.

Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks -4 (41.5)

The Panthers come in off consecutive upset wins as they beat the Bears in Chicago last week on the back once again of WR Steve Smith. Following their playoff bye the Seahawks came out flat against the Redskins, but got a big performance from WR Darrell Jackson to do just enough to win by double digits over Washington. It was the 9th home win of the year at home for the Seahawks.

Some books opened this line much higher, some as high 6.5 points and almost all the early money on has come in the red-hot underdog Panthers. Carolina has looked impressive in their two-playoff wins as they have been dominating on both sides of the ball and Steve Smith looks unstoppable. Of concern for most players will be the health of Seattle RB Alexander as he suffered a concussion last week, but in actuality the Seahawks are healthier than the Panthers as Carolina will be without their two best backs and star DE Julius Peppers is hurting.

Traditionally, home field advantage is given 3 points but it looks like oddsmakers laid too much stock in the Seahawks and they have been pummelled with dog money as the early bettors like what the Panthers have going for them. However, this will be the Panthers 4th straight road game in a do or die situation and players need to evaluate if they can keep the level of play this high for another week and into the superbowl. This line will in all likelihood close at 4 points or a half point lower by the time all players get in on the action.