College Football Picks

I’m wearing the golden sombrero.

Pardon me for dragging a baseball term into this column, but I went 0-for-4 with my college football picks last week. And they were all big whiffs, too. It was a crazy week – even Washington State managed to win a game, something I didn’t think the Cougars would do at all this year. So we have some catching up to do at 4-8 on the season.

Now that we’re three games into the 2009 campaign, we’ve got some tangible results to work with, and hard evidence is our bread-and-butter here at Raine Kitchen Stadium. Allez cuisine…

Iowa (+10) at No. 4 Penn State

Each team started the year with three straight victories, but the Hawkeyes are 2-0 ATS and the Nittany Lions are 0-3 ATS. The circumstances in this Big Ten opener are a little different; Penn State won’t have to cover a monster spread, but the weakness of the Lions’ offensive line was evident with the under at 3-0. The Hawkeyes have a good defense and have covered this matchup four of the last five years and seven out of nine.

Ball State at Auburn (-33)

Let’s get in on fading the Cardinals while we can. After a very impressive 2008 (12-2 SU, 9-4 ATS), Ball State has lost three in a row to some very questionable teams, including the FCS representatives from New Hampshire. The Tigers, meanwhile, are roaring back from a very disappointing 2008 (5-7 SU, 2-9 ATS) with three victories and three paydays. All three games went over, so the fat spread isn’t too daunting here.

No. 13 Miami (-2.5) at No. 12 Virginia Tech

It’s been a while since the Hurricanes were worth following rather than fading. They may have already topped out in value after all the positive press they’ve gotten. But I’m very impressed with the Miami offensive line, allowing the continued development of QB Jacory Harris in his sophomore season. I’m not impressed with Virginia Tech’s smallish defensive line in this situation.

Miami-Ohio at Kent State: UNDER 49.5

Neither of these two MAC teams has beaten the spread this season. The Golden Flashes do have a win this year – against Coastal Carolina, another FCS club. They’re pretty beaten up at this point, but that’s nothing compared to the complete disaster that is Miami University. The RedHawks didn’t score a point in either of their first two games. The under is 13-4 in their last 17 games after an ATS loss.

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