Point Spread: Badgers (-35)
Game Total Line: (56)
(wagering lines available at 5Dimes)
The UNLV Rebels step way up in weight class to open their 2011 football season when they take on the Big Ten’s Wisconsin Badgers this upcoming Thursday night at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison. Game time is set for 8 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
UNLV is a prohibitive road underdog in this game, but that should not be a surprise for a team that won just two games last season. Bobby Hauck enters his second season as the Rebels head coach in what can be classified as a major rebuilding project for a team that has not won enough games to qualify for a bowl since 2000.
There are seven starters back from an offense that was ranked 110th in the nation last season in scoring with an average of just 18.4 points a game. Hauck has recently announced that sophomore quarterback Caleb Herring will be the starter against the Badgers. If things get ugly early, which they probably will, do not be surprised if Hauck turns to junior college transfer Sean Reilly, who competed with Herring in summer camp for the starting job.
Wisconsin enters the 2011 season with high expectations of not only winning another Big Ten title but to make a serious run at a BCS title as well. The Badgers are the current second-favorites to win the Big Ten conference at 13/5 and are listed at 20/1 to win a national title.
A big part of their chances now rest on the shoulders on quarterback Russell Wilson, who transferred from NC State for his final season of eligibility. Joe Budmayr was slated to be the starter, but he is out with swelling in his throwing elbow, and may require season-ending surgery. Wilson could actually end up being a step-up after throwing for over 3,500 yards last season for the Wolfpack.
Wisconsin will also count on one of the best rushing attacks in the nation to drive its offense. Gone is John Clay, who rushed for over 1000 yards last season, but in his place it has James White and Montee Ball, who combined for close to 2000 yards rushing last season as well.
The Badgers’ defense returns just six starters from last season. They lost quite a bit of talent in both the linebacking corps and the secondary, but the defensive line remains solid with the return of Patrick Butrym and Louis Nzegwu.
The best bet in this game could be the ‘over’. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of UNLV’s last 10 games overall and in six of its last nine games as an underdog. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of Wisconsin’s last 10 games overall and in 20 of its last 27 games as a favorite. It also does not hurt that the Rebels were ranked 116th in the nation last season in points allowed, while the Badgers were ranked fifth the nation in scoring.
Skip the 35 point spread but look for Wisconsin to make an opening day splash in a game that goes over the 56-point total.
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