College Football Handicapping

Big 12 Championship Preview

No. 3 Texas Longhorns (12-0) vs. No. 22 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3)

Opening Line: Longhorns -13.5 / Cornhuskers +13.5

Time: 8 PM EST Saturday December 5, 2009 on ABC

On Saturday night in the Big 12 Championship game the 3rd ranked Texas Longhorns face the 22nd ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers. Unlike last season the Longhorns will have no reason to worry about getting to the BCS title game, as if they will this game they will face the winner of the SEC Championship game for the National Title. 4th ranked TCU and 5th ranked Cincinnati will be rooting hard for Nebraska, as the only chance these 2 undefeated teams have to play for the National Title will be if the Huskers upset the Longhorns. The Huskers were only at 4-3 after 7 games, but they won their last 5 games to capture the Big 12 North crown for a spot in this conference championshop game. The only chance they have to play in a BCS game is if they can beat Texas. This game features the solid offense of the Huskers against Colt McCoy and the Texas offense, which is the 3rd highest scoring offense in the nation.

Last week Texas beat Texas A&M in a shootout 49-39 and Nebraska beat Colorado 28-20.

Texas’ offense ranks 11th in the nation and they are led by Heisman candidate QB Colt McCoy (3,328 yds 27 TD 9 INT). He has been solid all year and on fire lately, as in the last 5 games he has 1,791 passing yards with 18 TD’s and only 2 INT’s. He and WR Jordan Shipley (99 rec 1,292 yds 11 TD), who is averaging 13 yards per reception, are one of the best tandems in the college game. Texas has a well-balanced offense, as they can also run the ball having the nation’s 47th ranked rushing offense. The Huskers’ D ranks 11th in the nation and in their 5-game winning streak they are only giving up an average of 10 points per game. Their D has to contain the rushing attack and keep McCoy from making the big play downfield. To do that they will have to pressure him and the Huskers are legit at getting to opposing QB’s, as they have 32 sacks this season.

Nebraska has to win this game on defense, as they only rank 92nd in the nation on offense. Their strength is the rushing attack with the RB duo of Roy Helu Jr. (1111 yds 9 TD) and freshman RB Rex Burkhead, who ran for a 100 yards and a TD in the win over Colorado last week. Huskers’ QB Zac Lee (1,931 yds 13 TD 7 INT) may be counted on for more offense in this game if the Longhorns can stuff the run. Even though the Longhorns have the top-ranked defense in the Big 12 they gave up 532 total yards to Texas A&M in their last game. The Huskers’ offensive line has to play well in this game, as the Texas’ D had 38 sacks this season, which ranked 3rd in the nation.

This season the Longhorns are only 5-6-1 ATS, but are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games. The Huskers are 7-5 ATS and are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.

SEC Championship Game Preview

No. 1 Florida Gators (12-0) vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0)

Opening Line: Gators -5.5 / Crimson Tide +5.5 O/U 42.5

Time: 4 PM EST Saturday December 5, 2009 on CBS

This SEC Championship game match up between the top-ranked Florida Gators and 2nd ranked Alabama Crimson Tide has been anticipated since before the season began and both teams stayed undefeated to set up this stellar match up. The winner of this game will be heading to the BCS National Title game while the loser will probably be headed to the Sugar Bowl. Both of these teams have great rushing offenses and each has a great defense. This game also features a couple of Heisman candidates in Florida QB Tim Tebow and Alabama RB Mark Ingram. Ingram does have an injured hip, but he will play in this game and the Tide need him to be 100%. In last year’s match up between these 2 teams the Gators scored 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to win and eventually went on to win the National Title. To repeat as champions the Gators must win this game.

Last week Florida beat in-state rival Florida State 37-10 and Alabama beat Auburn 26-21.

Florida’s offense ranks 11th in the nation and the 6th ranked rushing offense. How Tebow goes the Gators go, as he not only leads the passing offense, but he is also the team’s leading rusher with 796 yards and 13 TD. He is joined in the backfield by RB Jeffery Demps (729 yds 7 TD), as these two are the main offensive weapons Florida has. Even though the Gators only rank 64th in the nation in passing offense Tebow can air it out and he has legit targets, especially Aaron Hernandez (51 rec 654 4 TD) and Riley Cooper (41 rec 703 yds 8 TD). Alabama has the nation’s 3rd ranked rushing defense and overall they rank 2nd on defense. Their main goal in this game is to keep Tebow and Demps from moving the chains on the ground. If they can force Tebow to beat them with his arm it gives the Tide a great chance to win.

Alabama’s offense ranks 40th in the nation and Ingram is their big gun. If he does not have a good game the Tide will have a hard time winning since their passing offense only ranks 93rd in the nation. Ingram was the leading rusher in the SEC this season and he will have to pick up yards on Florida’s tough D, which ranks 1st in the nation and 8th at defending the run. If Ingram can’t move the chains then QB Greg McElroy (2,211 yds 16 TD) will be counted on to provide the offense. He does have a couple of solid targets, but the passing offense is not the Tide’s strength, to say the least.

This season the Gators are 5-5-1 ATS and the total has gone Under in 7 of their last 10 games. The Crimson Tide are 7-5 ATS and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Florida.

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