(wagering lines available at 5Dimes)
Independence Stadium in Shreveport will be rocking the day after Christmas with the Big 12’s Missouri Tigers locking horns with the ACC’s North Carolina Tar Heels in this year’s Independence Bowl. The kick-off for this clash is slated for 5 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2.
Missouri comes into this game riding a three-game winning streak including a 24-10 victory over Kansas in its season finale, but it failed to cover as a 26-point road favorite and is 1-3 against the spread in its last four games. Overall, the Tigers are 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS. They finished the season 5-4 SU in conference play and the total went 6-6 in their 12 games.
All-purpose quarterback James Franklin was a one-man show for Missouri this season with 2,733 yards passing and another 839 yards running the ball. The Tigers were ranked 11th in the nation in rushing offense with an average of 236.3 yards per game. Henry Josey was the team’s leading rusher with 1,168 yards on the year, but he was lost for the season in Week 11 with a knee injury.
North Carolina was a mirror-image of the Tigers with a 7-5 record SU and a 6-6 record ATS. The total also went an even 6-6 in its 12 games. The major difference is that the Tar Heels lost four of their final six games down the stretch after starting the season 5-1. They did manage to end the season on a positive note with a 37-21 victory over rival Duke as 14-point favorites to go 3-1 ATS in their final four games.
The Tar Heels’ offensive attack skews more towards a passing attack that is averaging 249.2 yards a game. Quarterback Bryn Renner has been able to complete 68.8 percent of his passes for 2,769 yards and 23 touchdowns. His favorite target has been Dwight Jones, who leads the team with 79 receptions for 1,119 yards and 11 TD’s.
The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played at a neutral site. The total has stayed ‘under’ in nine of their last 12 non-conference games.
The Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of their last six games played outside the ACC.
Missouri comes into this game in better form than the Tar Heels, but took a major hit in its running game when Josey went down. Look for Franklin to fill the void by leaning on the passing game to get by the Tar Heels. This one should be a nail-biter down to the final tick on the clock and while the Tigers do just enough to win, take the Tar Heels to cover with the 4.5 points and right now the extra half-point on the spread is huge.
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