Point Spread: LSU (-13.5)
Game Total Line: (42.5)
(wagering lines available at 5Dimes)
The Florida Gators take on their second-straight top five team this upcoming Saturday afternoon when they square-off against the LSU Tigers in a clash of SEC heavyweights. Game time is set for 3:30 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
Florida’s 38-10 loss to Alabama this past Saturday as a 3.5-point home underdog was its first setback this season after four fairly easy wins to start the year. The Gators are now 4-1 straight-up and 3-1-1 against the spread. The total has now gone ‘over’ in their last three games.
The lopsided loss to the Tide that basically ended any chance of a run to the BCS title game could prove to be even more costly after quarterback John Brantley left the game with an injury to his right leg. He is currently listed as day-to-day and if he cannot go, the Gators will have to rely solely on a running game that is averaging 210.2 yards a game led by Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps. These two have combined for 739 yards and six touchdowns on 111 carries.
LSU remained at the top of the AP poll (second in the Coaches Poll) with a 35-7 romp over Kentucky, but it could not cover as a 29.5-point home favorite. The total stayed ‘under’ the 46.5-point line. The Tigers are now 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS and the total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the five games. They have outscored their opponents by a combined 126 points and are averaging 38 points a game.
The Tigers formula for success this season has been a ground game that is averaging 172.6 yards a game and a defense that is giving up an average of just 12.8 points a game. Spencer Ware and Michael Ford have been the dynamic duo in the backfield for LSU with a combined 645 yards on the ground and nine rushing touchdowns. Alfred Blue has run for an additional 148 yards and three scores in a supporting role.
Florida is 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 games, but just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games against a team with a winning record. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of its last six conference games.
LSU is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games, but is just 8-17 in its last 25 home games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of its last six games played in the conference.
Head-to-head, this series has been evenly split at 5-5 SU in the last 10 games, but the Gators have a 7-3 edge ATS. Last season in Gainesville, the Tigers came away with a 33-29 victory as 6.5-point road underdogs and the total went ‘over’ the 43.5-point line.
Florida struggled to move the ball against Alabama last week and will have the same problem this week against an even better defense so stick with the Tigers to cruise to a double-digit victory.
Take the LSU Tigers -13.5 at 5Dimes (Best Reduced Juice Sportsbook).
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