North Carolina vs. Dayton (-1.5) Point Spread Picks

The Tar Heels (20-16) are close to making amends-somewhat-for failing to defend their national championship. North Carolina has won four consecutive games, though it needed overtime to finish off Rhode Island 68-67 this week. The Tar Heels covered that game and are now rolling at the sportsbook; although UNC is just 5-4-1 against the spread in its past 10 outings, the team has won three straight on college basketball odds.

As he has done all season, Deon Thompson led North Carolina. He didn't shoot especially well (6-20) but he still finished with a solid line, posting 16 points and 13 rebounds. Rebounding was crucial against Rhode Island, as the Tar Heels finished with a 54-39 edge on the glass. Thompson was joined by two other players scoring in double figures-Will Graves (14 points) and Tyler Zeller (12 points off the bench). John Henson and Marcus Ginyard also had double-digits in rebounds. Overall, UNC needs to shoot the three better; it hit just two of its 17 shots from downtown.

Dayton (24-12) has also won four straight to reach the NIT Final. The Flyers topped Mississippi 68-63 in the semi-final on Tuesday. Not unlike North Carolina, Dayton is building some serious momentum on NCAA basketball odds-the team has racked up four consecutive victories against the spread.

Chris Johnson-who finished second in scoring and rebounding on Dayton with 11.8 points and 6.9 rebounds per game-was a force in the semi-final win over Mississippi. He scored a game-high 22 points and hauled in 10 rebounds but, more importantly, buried five free throws down the stretch to put the game away. Leading-scorer Chris Wright (13.7 PPG) struggled to find his stroke en route to a 1-9, nine-point afternoon. He found other ways to contribute, though, and grabbed a game-high 11 rebounds. As a team the Flyers must shoot much better, though, as they hit just 33 percent of their field goals.

Dayton has gone over the total in five of its last seven games; North Carolina, meanwhile, has gone under in six of its past eight outings. Sportsbook.com has the total set at 137.5.

Game Prediction

Take Dayton -2.5