Point Spread: Florida(-3)
Game Total Line: (149)
(wagering lines available at 5Dimes)
The Southeast Region No.3 seed BYU Cougars take on the No.2 seed Florida Gators in the Sweet 16 round of this year’s NCAA Men’s Tournament. Thursday’s tip-off from the Superdome in New Orleans is set for 7:27 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on TBS.
When BYU’s top rebounder and third leading scorer, Brandon Davies was dismissed from the team due to violations of the school’s personal conduct policy, many people thought this would severely affect the team’s chances to make a deep run in this tournament. So far his loss has not been a factor as the Cougars have played extremely well as a team in their first two games. They opened-up with a 74-66 victory over No. 14 seed Wofford as an 8 ½-point favorite and then routed No.11 seed Gonzaga 89-67 as a one-point favorite in their next game.
Senior guard Jimmer Fredette is still the primary reason for BYU’s success this season. He led the nation during the regular season with an incredible 28.3 points a game, but has been even more impressive in this tournament, averaging 33 points a game. BYU was outrebounded 34-23 by the Bulldogs, but Fredette’s 34 points and six assists were more than enough to overcome this disadvantage.
Florida came into this tournament with its own group of doubters after getting blown out by Kentucky 70-54 in the SEC Tournament Championship as a 1 ½-point favorite. The Gators quickly bounced back with a lopsided win of their own in 79-51 romp over No.15 seed UC Santa Barbara in the second round as a 12 ½-point favorite. They silenced all the critics by advancing to the Sweet 16 with a 73-65 win over No.7 seed UCLA as a 5 ½-point favorite.
Junior guard Erving Walker led the way against the Bruins with a game-high 21 points. He leads the team in scoring with 14.7 points a game, followed by sophomore guard Kenny Boynton, who is averaging 14 points a game. Boynton scored 12 points and dished out five assists against UCLA, but slightly sprained his ankle in the win. He should be ready to go for Thursday as he is currently listed as probable. Senior forward Chandler Parsons, who leads the Gators with seven rebounds a game, could be a key factor in this game under the boards. If the rest of the defense can contain Fredette while Parsons controls the boards, they have an excellent chance to win this game.
BYU is 3-2 against the spread in its last five road games and 2-3 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last five games.
Florida is 2-1-1 ATS in its last four games on the road and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of its last 10 games.
This time around Florida has the better all around talent and depth to grind out the win, but stick with BYU and the three points as Fredette keeps this close until the final buzzer and possibly BYU pulls off a minor upset.
Take BYU +3 at SIA and grab a free $125 bonus. You can bet using an online check here!!
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