NFL Week 16 Picks

Have I ever mentioned how much I hate the Pittsburgh Steelers?

I believe I have. They cost me some more money last week by coming up with a last-second touchdown to beat Green Bay 37-36; the Packers were 1-point puppies when I made my pick. Consarnit. That made us 1-2-1 ATS on the week here at the Raine Factory and 31-27-2 ATS on the season. I did say it could be a tough week.

The Steelers have taken bread off my table before. But sometimes they give back. And honestly, this team deserves to be faded again this week. Never let bad beats control your behavior. Also, have a very Merry Christmas.

Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh moved to -2.5 at game time, proving yet again how important timing is for handicappers. That leaves the Steelers tied with the Chicago Bears at a league-worst 4-10 ATS. And yet the Steelers are still somehow in the playoff picture at 7-7, just one game behind the Ravens (8-6 SU and ATS) for a Wild Card berth in the AFC. The real difference in talent between the two is much greater, as evidenced by their point differentials: plus-125 for Baltimore and plus-35 for Pittsburgh.

Jacksonville at New England (-8)
Jacksonville (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) has played some good games this year, but not very often. The Jags have a point differential of minus-56 and have covered just one of their last five outings. New England (9-5 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) is having money issues lately at 2-4-1 ATS over the past seven games. The Pats (plus-121 differential) should be sufficiently motivated for a decisive AFC East-clinching victory to quiet their critics.

St. Louis (+14) at Arizona
If the Cardinals (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) couldn't cover the 14-point spread last week against Detroit, and if the Rams (1-13 SU, 7-7 ATS) covered a 14-point spread last week against Houston, then the logic monsters say I have to pick St. Louis. The Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven, while Arizona has dropped the cash twice in a row and has relatively little incentive after already sewing up the NFC South title.

Dallas at Washington (+7)
There are only two home dogs on the slate this week, and one of them is the Bears, so forget them. Washington (4-10 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) will suffice even though the 'Skins had their 5-0 ATS streak snapped by the Giants on Monday - which I picked right, hallelujah. Dallas barely won this matchup 7-6 back in Week 11 as an 11-point home favorite. And the Cowboys are a dome team preparing for a cold Sunday night outdoors.